《原则》

不管我一生中取得了多大的成功，其主要原因都不是我知道多少事情，而是我知道在无知的情况下自己应该怎么做。

Whatever success I’ve had in life has had more to do with my knowing how to deal with my not knowing than anything I know.

独立思考并决定：（1）你想要什么；（2）事实是什么；（3）面对事实，你如何实现自己的愿望。

Think for yourself to decide (1) what you want, (2) what is true, and (3) what you should do to achieve.

我认为成功的关键在于，既知道如何努力追求很多东西，也知道如何正确地失败。“正确地失败”是指，能够在经历痛苦的失败的过程中吸取重要的教训，从而避免”错误地失败”，即因为失败而被踢出局。

I believe that the key to success lies in knowing how to both strive for a lot and fail well. By failing well, I mean being able to experience painful failures that provide big learnings without failing badly enough to get knocked out of the game.

想要在市场上赚钱，一个人需要成为一个独立的思考者，习惯于打赌会发生与共识相反的情况，而且赌对。这是因为共识性的观点通常已经反映在价格中了。

To make money in the markets, one needs to be an independent thinker who bets against the consensus and is right. That’s because the consensus view is baked into the price.

我犯下的代价惨痛的错误使我改变了看问题的角度，从”我知道我是对的”变成了”我怎么知道我是对的”。

My painful mistakes shifted me from having a perspective of “I know I’m right” to having one of “How do I know I’m right?”

知行合一。

Walk the talk.

经验告诉我，在做任何决定时，仔细思考并写下我的决策标准，是价值无限的。

Experience taught me how invaluable it is to reflect on and write down my decision-making criteria whenever I made a decision.

我们不断了解自身和现实，然后做出新的决定。在一生中，我们会做出无数的决定，这些决定实质上都是赌博，一些是大赌，一些是小赌。

We learn about ourselves and about reality and make new decisions. Over the course of our lives, we make millions and millions of decisions that are essentially bets, some large and some small.

同时，与失败比起来，我对乏味和平庸的恐惧要严重得多。对我而言，很好的事要比糟糕的事好，而糟糕的事要比平庸的事好，因为糟糕的事至少给生活增加了滋味。

I feared boredom and mediocrity much more than I feared failure. For me, great is better than terrible, and terrible is better than mediocre, because terrible at least gives life flavor.

我的朋友为我挑选了梭罗的一句名言：“如果一个人和同伴的步调不一致，也许因为他听到的是不同的鼓点。让他跟着他听到的音乐前行吧，不管节奏是迟缓还是激越。”

The high school yearbook quote my friends chose for me was from Thoreau: “If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away.”

我逐渐认识到，股价反映了人们的预期，所以当实际结果比预期好时，股价上涨；当实际结果比预期差时，股价下跌。而大多数人会因为近期的经验而产生偏见。

几乎所有的事情都是”情景再现”：以前，几乎所有事情都以符合逻辑的因果关系不断发生过。

I was beginning to see things happening over and over again, which led me to see that most everything is “another one of those”: Most everything has happened repeatedly before for logical cause-effect reasons.

尽管赚钱很好，但拥有有意义的工作和人际关系要比赚钱好得多。对我而言，有意义的工作是指一项我能全身心投入的使命；有意义的人际关系是指我既深深地关心对方，对方也深深地关心我。

While making money was good, having meaningful work and meaningful relationships was far better.

把赚钱作为你的目标是没有意义的，因为金钱并没有固有的价值，金钱的价值来自它能买到的东西，但金钱并不能买到一切。更聪明的做法是，先确定你真正想要什么，你真正的目标是什么，然后想想你为了得到这些目标需要做什么。

想象一下，为了拥有美好的生活，你必须穿越一片危险的丛林。你可以安全地留在原地，过着普通的生活；你也可以冒险穿越丛林，过着绝妙的生活。你将如何对待这一选择？

Imagine that in order to have a great life you have to cross a dangerous jungle. You can stay safe where you are and have an ordinary life, or you can risk crossing the jungle to have a terrific life. How would you approach that choice?

这些都让我牢牢记住了一个永不磨灭的教训：时机就是一切。

Timing is everything.

导致我崩盘的那些错误明显得令人难堪。第一，我离谱地过度自信，并放纵自己被情绪左右。我学到，无论我知道多少东西，无论我多么勤奋，我都不能自信地做出绝对的断言。

I had been wildly overconfident and had let my emotions get the better of me. I learned that no matter how much I knew and how hard I worked, I could never be certain enough to proclaim things with absolute certainty.

我学到了一种很好的恐惧犯错的意识，这把我的思维定式从认为”我是对的”变成了问自己”我怎么知道我是对的”。

I learned a great fear of being wrong that shifted my mind-set from thinking “I’m right” to asking myself “How do I know I’m right?”

换言之，我的目标只是让自己正确——我并不关心正确的答案是不是来源于我。

I just want to be right—I don’t care if the right answer comes from me.

通常，当我们遵循自己的自然秉性做事时，我们可能考虑不到自身的弱点，这将导致我们走向失败。最重要的是失败之后怎么做。成功的人改变他们的做法，这使他们能够继续利用自己的优势，弥补自身的不足，而不成功的人不会这样做。

只有当你能承认甚至接受自身的弱点时，你才能做出对自身有益的改变。

Beneficial change begins when you can acknowledge and even embrace your weaknesses.

我发现，想要追求卓越，你就必须挑战自己的极限，而挑战自己的极限可能会使你一蹶不振，这将造成很大的痛苦。你会觉得自己已经失败了，但这不一定是失败，除非你自己放弃。

I saw that to do exceptionally well you have to push your limits and that, if you push your limits, you will crash and it will hurt a lot. You will think you have failed—but that won’t be true unless you give up.

几乎总是存在着一条你还没有发现的有利的道路，所以你需要不断找下去，直到找到它，而不是满足于最初对你显而易见的那种选择。

There is almost always a good path that you just haven’t discovered yet, so look for it until you find it rather than settle for the choice that is then apparent to you.

“靠水晶球谋生的人注定要吃碎在地上的玻璃。” 我已经吃了足够多的碎玻璃，也懂得了最重要的事情并不是预知未来，而是知道在每一个时间点上如何针对可获得的信息做出合理的回应。

“He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass.” I had eaten enough glass to realize that what was most important wasn’t knowing the future—it was knowing how to react appropriately to the information available at each point in time.

我相信，想要改进你的决策，你能做的最有价值的事情之一，是深入思考你的决策原则，同时以文字和计算机算法的形式把这些原则写下来，在条件允许的情况下进行回测，并以实时的方式，在用你的头脑进行决策的同时运用这些原则。

I believe one of the most valuable things you can do to improve your decision making is to think through your principles for making decisions, write them out in both words and computer algorithms, back-test them if possible, and use them on a real-time basis to run in parallel with your brain’s decision making.

如果你以勤奋和有创造性的方式工作，你几乎可以得到你想要的任何东西，但你不可能同时得到所有东西。成熟意味着你可以放弃一些好的选择，从而追求更好的选择。

If you work hard and creatively, you can have just about anything you want, but not everything you want. Maturity is the ability to reject good alternatives in order to pursue even better ones.

所有了不起的投资者和投资策略都是有弱点的。在弱点呈现时就对其失去信心是一种常见的错误，就像在其有效时对其过于迷恋一样。明智的人在经历各种沉浮时都始终盯紧稳健的基本面；而轻浮的人跟着感觉走，做出情绪化的反应。

All great investors and investment approaches have bad patches. Losing faith in them at such times is as common a mistake as getting too enamored of them when they do well.

想要拥有很多优势，而又不暴露于不可接受的劣势之下，最稳妥的方式是做出一系列良好的、互不相关的押注，彼此平衡，相互补充。

Making a handful of good uncorrelated bets that are balanced and leveraged well is the surest way of having a lot of upside without being exposed to unacceptable downside.

1. 把我们的真实想法摆在桌面上；2. 存在经过深思熟虑的分歧，但人们愿意在相互了解的过程中更改观点；3. 如果分歧依然存在，拥有一种大家一致同意的决策方式，以便我们能够不带怨气地把分歧留在身后。

1. Put our honest thoughts out on the table, 2. Have thoughtful disagreements in which people are willing to shift their opinions as they learn, and 3. Have agreed-upon ways of deciding if disagreements remain so that we can move beyond them without resentments.

每个人的大脑都有两部分——层次较高的逻辑部分与层次较低的情绪部分。我称此为”两个你”。它们会争夺对于一个人的控制权。管理这一冲突的方式，是我们行为最重要的驱动因素。

There are two parts of each person’s brain: the upper-level logical part and the lower-level emotional part. I call these the “two yous.” They fight for control of each person.

像算法一样决策的一个好处是，这可以让人们把注意力集中在因果关系上，并以此培养真正的创意择优。算法本质上就是在连续性基础上运行的原则。

One of the great things about algorithmic decision making is that it focuses people on cause-effect relationships. The algorithms are essentially principles in action on a continuous basis.

做一个超级现实的人。理解现实，接受现实，处理现实问题，既是务实的，也是美妙的。

Be a hyperrealist. Understanding, accepting, and working with reality is both practical and beautiful.

真相（或者更精确地说，对现实的准确理解）是任何良好结果的根本依据。当真相与愿望不符时，大多数人抗拒真相。

Truth—or, more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality—is the essential foundation for any good outcome.

不要固守你对事物”应该”是什么样的看法，这将使你无法了解真实的情况。很重要的是，不要让偏见阻碍我们保持客观。想要取得好结果，我们需要冷静而不是情绪化。

Don’t get hung up on your views of how things “should” be because you will miss out on learning how they really are. It’s important not to let our biases stand in the way of our objectivity. To get good results, we need to be analytical rather than emotional.

进化是好的，因为它是一个适应的过程，通常会推动事物的改善。产品、组织、人类的能力，所有东西都在以类似的方式逐渐进化。这只不过是一个要么适应、改进，要么死亡的过程。

Evolution is good because it is the process of adaptation that generally moves things toward improvement. All things evolve through time in a similar way. It is simply the process by which things either adapt and improve or die.

不进化就死亡。这个进化循环不仅适用于人，也适用于国家、企业、经济体，以及一切事物。

Evolve or die. This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything.

意识到你既是一切又什么都不是，并决定你想成为什么样子。

Realize that you are simultaneously everything and nothing—and decide what you want to be.

你的未来取决于你的视角。你在一生中取得什么样的成就，将取决于你如何看待事物，以及你关心什么人、什么东西。

如弗洛伊德所说，“爱与工作是人性的基石”。

As Freud put it, “Love and work are the cornerstones of our humanness.”

自然的一项根本法则是，为了赢得力量，人必须努力突破极限，而这是痛苦的。正像卡尔·荣格所说，“人需要困难，这对健康来说是必需的”。但多数人本能地躲避痛苦。

It is a fundamental law of nature that in order to gain strength one has to push one’s limits, which is painful. As Carl Jung put it, “Man needs difficulties. They are necessary for health.” Yet most people instinctually avoid pain.

如果你能养成一种习惯，在一定程度的痛苦中工作，你将更快地进化。事情就是这样。

Go to the pain rather than avoid it. If you don’t let up on yourself and instead become comfortable always operating with some level of pain, you will evolve at a faster pace. That’s just the way it is.

痛苦 + 反思 = 进步。如果你不是放任自己，而是养成习惯，总是在一定程度的痛苦中工作，你将更快地进化。

Pain + Reflection = Progress. Believe it or not, you are lucky to feel that kind of pain if you approach it correctly, because it is a signal that you need to find solutions so you can progress.

直面你的问题、错误和弱点导致的痛苦现实，会大幅提高你的效率。大多数人在痛苦时不愿反思，而一旦痛苦消失他们的注意力就会转移，所以他们难以通过反思得到教益。

如果你没有经历过失败，就说明你没有努力突破极限，而如果你不努力突破极限，你就不能最大限度地挖掘自己的潜能。

If you’re not failing, you’re not pushing your limits, and if you’re not pushing your limits, you’re not maximizing your potential.

生活不可避免地会带给你这样的考验，而你愿不愿意以退为进、从失败中获益，取决于你自己。

你一生中必定会经历某个一败涂地的时刻。那时，你将深陷痛苦，可能觉得失去了继续前行的力量。然而，你几乎总是有这样的力量。

At some point in your life you will crash in a big way. At such times, you will be in pain and might think that you don’t have the strength to go on. You almost always do, however.

不管在生活中遇到什么情况，如果你能负起责任，进行良好的决策，而不是抱怨你无法控制的东西，你将更有可能成功并找到幸福。

Whatever circumstances life brings you, you will be more likely to succeed and find happiness if you take responsibility for making your decisions well instead of complaining about things being beyond your control.

大多数人犯下的最大错误是不客观看待自己以及其他人，这导致他们一次次地栽在自己或其他人的弱点上。

The biggest mistake most people make is to not see themselves and others objectively, which leads them to bump into their own and others’ weaknesses again and again.

如果你发现自己不能把所有事都做到最好，并为此难过的话，你就太幼稚了。没有人能把一切都做好。

If you are disappointed because you can’t be the best person to do everything yourself, you are terribly naive.

面对自身缺点，你有4种选择：1. 你可以否认缺点（这是大多数人的做法）。2. 你可以承认缺点并应对缺点，努力把缺点转化为优势。3. 你可以承认缺点并找到绕过缺点的方法。4. 或者，你可以改变你的目标。

When encountering your weaknesses you have four choices: 1. You can deny them. 2. You can accept them and work at them. 3. You can accept your weaknesses and find ways around them. 4. Or, you can change what you are going after.

在你不擅长的领域请教擅长的其他人，这是一个你无论如何都应该培养的出色技能，这将帮助你建立起安全护栏，避免自己做错事。所有成功的人都善于这么做。

Asking others who are strong in areas where you are weak to help you is a great skill that you should develop no matter what, as it will help you develop guardrails that will prevent you from doing what you shouldn’t be doing. All successful people are good at this.

1. 有明确的目标。2. 找到阻碍你实现这些目标的问题，并且不容忍问题。3. 准确诊断问题，找到问题的根源。4. 规划可以解决问题的方案。5. 做一切必要的事来践行这些方案，实现成果。

1. Have clear goals. 2. Identify and don’t tolerate the problems that stand in the way of your achieving those goals. 3. Accurately diagnose the problems to get at their root causes. 4. Design plans that will get you around them. 5. Do what’s necessary to push these designs through to results.

不要混淆你的愿望和事实。不要为自身形象担心，只需关心能不能实现你的目标。不要过于重视直接结果而忽视后续、再后续的结果。不要让痛苦妨碍进步。不要把不好的结果归咎于任何人，从自己身上找原因。

1. Don’t confuse what you wish were true with what is really true. 2. Don’t worry about looking good—worry instead about achieving your goals. 3. Don’t overweight first-order consequences relative to second- and third-order ones. 4. Don’t let pain stand in the way of progress. 5. Don’t blame bad outcomes on anyone but yourself.